Global optimism among mid-market business leaders softened slightly in Q4 2025: 74% remain optimistic about their prospects for the next 12 months, two points lower than in Q3 2025. In the Netherlands, optimism fell more sharply, from 71% to 60%.
Conversely, concern about economic uncertainty dropped significantly in Q4 compared to Q3, falling by eight points globally. Only 54% of business leaders now feel uncertain about their economy, according to Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report (IBR). In the Netherlands, concern fell by seven points, from 45% to 38%.
Businesses crave certainty. Stable and predictable conditions give organisations the confidence to invest, or at least a reason to be optimistic about the future. So why hasn’t this sharp decline in concern about economic uncertainty led to a rise in optimism?
One possible explanation for this apparent contradiction is that the mid-market has adapted to and normalised the uncertainty they face every day.
After a year that began with widespread recession forecasts and was marked by a constant stream of tariff announcements and other potential disruptions, a more stable outlook seems to bring relief rather than exuberant optimism. Still, global optimism at 74% (and 60% in the Netherlands) remains high compared to historical averages.
Will that optimism, combined with relief over declining (or normalised) uncertainty, lead to healthier commercial results for the mid-market in 2026?
Judging by a general decline in concerns about business constraints, companies worldwide appear to be preparing for better prospects next year. In addition to the eight-point drop in concerns about economic uncertainty, we see:
Concerns about all 15 constraints we track have fallen this quarter. Last quarter, more than 50% of the mid-market worried about 10 of these constraints. That figure has halved to five this quarter.
Our research shows another contradiction compared to declining constraints. Now that inflation is largely under control, global data shows a four-point drop in businesses expecting to raise their selling prices next year (to 49%). For the Netherlands, this shows a slight increase from 54% to 55%. Also:
With more than 60% of businesses worldwide expecting an increase in revenue and profit, it’s clearly not all doom and gloom. However, with less than half expecting to raise selling prices, cost-of-living pressures appear to be forcing businesses to compete on price and focus on delivering value, thereby putting pressure on their margins.
The global economy remains weak. As the IMF stated in October 2025:
“Global economy in motion, outlook remains bleak.”
This makes business leaders worldwide less certain about their international outlook:
Investment intentions have also been scaled back:
This suggests that businesses continue to recognise the importance of technology and productivity gains in achieving a competitive advantage.
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