Sustainability is under pressure worldwide. Political unrest, economic uncertainty, and social division are causing organisations to hesitate: push forward or scale back?
Global optimism among mid-market business leaders softened slightly in Q4 2025: 74% remain optimistic about their prospects for the next 12 months, two points lower than in Q3 2025. In the Netherlands, optimism fell more sharply, from 71% to 60%.
Conversely, concern about economic uncertainty dropped significantly in Q4 compared to Q3, falling by eight points globally. Only 54% of business leaders now feel uncertain about their economy, according to Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report (IBR). In the Netherlands, concern fell by seven points, from 45% to 38%.
Businesses crave certainty. Stable and predictable conditions give organisations the confidence to invest, or at least a reason to be optimistic about the future. So why hasn’t this sharp decline in concern about economic uncertainty led to a rise in optimism?
Economic optimism and uncertainty: 2020 - 2025
Uncertainty as the new normal
One possible explanation for this apparent contradiction is that the mid-market has adapted to and normalised the uncertainty they face every day.
After a year that began with widespread recession forecasts and was marked by a constant stream of tariff announcements and other potential disruptions, a more stable outlook seems to bring relief rather than exuberant optimism. Still, global optimism at 74% (and 60% in the Netherlands) remains high compared to historical averages.
“Fasten your seatbelt. Uncertainty is the new normal, and it’s here to stay.”
Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director of the IMF
What does this mean for 2026?
Will that optimism, combined with relief over declining (or normalised) uncertainty, lead to healthier commercial results for the mid-market in 2026?
Judging by a general decline in concerns about business constraints, companies worldwide appear to be preparing for better prospects next year. In addition to the eight-point drop in concerns about economic uncertainty, we see:
- Financing shortfall: globally down seven points, only 41% still cite this as a concern. In the Netherlands, 41% also cite financing shortfall as a concern.
- Geopolitical disruptions: globally down six points to 46%. In the Netherlands, the number has dropped four points to 42%.
- Competition: globally down six points to 48%. In the Netherlands, the percentage has decreased from 38% to 31%.
- Shortage of future orders or demand: globally down five points to 47%. In the Netherlands, down from 42% in Q3 2025 to 31% in Q4.
- Supply chains: globally down four points to 45%. In the Netherlands, the number has dropped eight points to 32%.
Concerns about all 15 constraints we track have fallen this quarter. Last quarter, more than 50% of the mid-market worried about 10 of these constraints. That figure has halved to five this quarter.
Business constraints Q3 2025 - Q4 2025
Exuberant 2026? Perhaps not
Our research shows another contradiction compared to declining constraints. Now that inflation is largely under control, global data shows a four-point drop in businesses expecting to raise their selling prices next year (to 49%). For the Netherlands, this shows a slight increase from 54% to 55%. Also:
- The number of businesses globally expecting to increase revenue next year fell by two points to 62%. The Dutch mid-market experiences a sharper decline, dropping from 64% in Q3 to 55% in Q4 2025.
- Profit expectations globally also fell by two points: 64% expect an increase next year. In the Netherlands, 53% expect a profit increase in 2026.
With more than 60% of businesses worldwide expecting an increase in revenue and profit, it’s clearly not all doom and gloom. However, with less than half expecting to raise selling prices, cost-of-living pressures appear to be forcing businesses to compete on price and focus on delivering value, thereby putting pressure on their margins.
Global ambitions Q3 2025 - Q4 2025
International Outlook and Investments
The global economy remains weak. As the IMF stated in October 2025:
“Global economy in motion, outlook remains bleak.”
This makes business leaders worldwide less certain about their international outlook:
- Export expectations: globally down five points to 51%. In the Netherlands, we see a nine-point increase (to 53%).
- Revenue from foreign markets: globally down three points to 47%. In the Netherlands, the number of people who support the idea has decreased by eight points (to 44%).
Investment intentions have also been scaled back:
- Investments in plant and machinery: globally down five points to 47%. In the Netherlands, 48%.
- AI investments: globally barely changed, down one point to 66%. The Netherlands remains level.
- IT investments: globally, also down one point to 67%. In the Netherlands, 66%.
This suggests that businesses continue to recognise the importance of technology and productivity gains in achieving a competitive advantage.
Investment intentions: Q1 2025 - Q4 2025
“As 2025 closes, our latest IBR shows optimism holding firm at 74%, even as expectations for revenue and exports soften. This is not a story of retreat – it’s a story of recalibration. Businesses are ending the year stronger than they started, with supply-side pressures easing dramatically and economic uncertainty at its lowest level in two years.
At the same time, leaders are pragmatic. They are pulling back on big-ticket investments, such as plant and machinery, while doubling down on technology, AI, and R&D to future-proof their operations. This pivot reflects a clear priority: resilience and productivity over rapid expansion.
Looking ahead to 2026, the mid-market is adapting to a world of predictable uncertainty. Firms are building stability, not waiting for it – investing in what matters most: their people, their purpose, and their ability to respond to change. That is how the mid-market will remain the engine of global growth.”
Peter Bodin
CEO of Grant Thornton International Ltd
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