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This article, based on the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), explores how today’s shifting economic landscape presents real opportunities for mid-sized businesses, even as larger corporations take a more cautious stance. The IBR is the world’s largest and most respected mid-market survey. Since 1992, over 15,000 business leaders across the globe have shared their outlooks each quarter. Together with our international specialists, we translate this data into practical insights and timely discussion topics tailored to what’s happening in the market and helping you set the right course.
The global economy in the second half of 2025 presents a mixed picture. The OECD has downgraded its growth forecast from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent and warns of further decline, particularly if trade barriers, geopolitical tensions and unclear policies persist. [i]
A recent sector analysis by ABN AMRO underscores the vulnerability of the Dutch open economy. Industries such as manufacturing, transport and technology are especially sensitive to geopolitical instability and trade restrictions, including recently imposed US import duties. In an open, export-driven economy like the Netherlands, this adds pressure on both margins and supply certainty.
The international mid-market is feeling the strain. Export expectations have dropped by 3 percent, and international revenues are down 4.2 percent. Dutch businesses are seeing a similar pattern: although export expectations are up 6 percent, their international revenues have fallen by 3 percent. Yet the fundamentals remain surprisingly strong. Two thirds of international businesses expect higher revenues this year (66.1 percent), and a similar number anticipate profit growth (63.1 percent). In the Netherlands, expectations are slightly lower but clearly rising: 59 percent expect revenue growth (up from 58 percent last quarter), while 57 percent anticipate higher profits, a notable jump from 45 percent the previous quarter.
More than half of Dutch mid-sized businesses (52 percent) expect to increase their selling prices. Internationally, the figure stands at 54 percent. These signals highlight the resilience, agility and strategic strength of the mid-market. Exactly the qualities needed to seize opportunities in a volatile world.
Tensions on the global stage are also having direct consequences in the Netherlands. According to a recent economic survey by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), nearly 30 percent of Dutch businesses have recently experienced supply chain disruptions. Among smaller firms, that figure is 27 percent. Manufacturing companies are particularly affected, facing delays, higher costs and growing dependence on a limited number of suppliers.
Evolving trade routes: new paths, new potential
The rise in tariffs and trade restrictions from the US, followed by retaliatory measures, is fuelling tensions, particularly between the US, the EU and China. This is creating mounting uncertainty, especially for the mid-market, where concern has risen by five percentage points to 60.5 percent.
While markets have recovered from similar shocks in the past, this time the shifts in global trade patterns appear more structural. [ii]
In response, talks on new trade agreements have accelerated and are slowly but surely reshaping the landscape:
- EU–India Free Trade Agreement
Nearing completion, this deal aims to strengthen economic cooperation. - GCC–China Free Trade Agreement
Talks have intensified in response to growing trade pressures and uncertainty. - African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
Expected to boost intra-African trade by 50 percent by the end of 2025. [iii]
On the monetary side, divergence is growing. The US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance has created the largest interest rate gap with the ECB in over two years. [iv]
Still, these uncertainties also open doors. Mid-sized firms able to respond quickly are finding room to invest and expand. In Europe and South America, nearly half of companies expect to increase exports (49.3 percent and 58.5 percent respectively). In North America, the number of export destinations is up by five percentage points.
Dutch businesses are also becoming more confident: the share expecting export growth has risen from 43 percent to 49 percent, a six-point jump. The opportunities are there. The question is: who will seize them?
A hesitant economy: the mid-market steps up
As larger companies delay investments and shift focus inward, the mid-market is stepping into the gap. [v] Political uncertainty, trade disputes and the slow recovery of major economies are all weighing on big-business decision-making.
That cautious pace creates space. Mid-sized companies benefit from shorter decision chains and a greater appetite for risk, making them better positioned to move into emerging or traditionally underserved markets. [vi]
Those who act now can capitalise on a world in flux. A proactive approach not only accelerates individual growth but contributes to wider economic momentum. With the mid-market in the lead.
Five steps to strategic advantage
To make the most of these opportunities, we recommend a five-step approach:
- Model stability in an unpredictable environment
Develop scenarios around key trade routes. Identify cost, access and compliance implications under different outcomes, from prolonged tariffs to fast-tracked agreements. - Make agility your growth foundation
Sustainable growth depends on resilience. Build a flexible business model with modular logistics, a diversified client base, scalable supplier networks and strong internal governance. - Embrace digital and service-led expansion
Trade deals increasingly focus on services and digital commerce. Mid-sized businesses exploring these areas are gaining first-mover advantage. In fact, 63.3 percent of mid-market tech firms expect to expand into more countries over the next 12 months. - Strengthen strategic supply chains
Nearly half (48.6 percent) of mid-sized firms cite supply chains as a pressure point. Smart engagement with new trade agreements can improve cross-border flows. Consider dual sourcing in emerging markets for added flexibility. - Invest in talent and innovation across borders
Modern trade agreements open doors to R&D collaboration and international talent mobility. Go beyond goods: look at how new skills, ideas and partnerships can power your growth globally.
Shaping international growth: progress through strategy
For now, large corporations remain on the sidelines. That gives mid-sized businesses the opportunity to shape a new chapter in international trade. Their scale and flexibility provide an edge in a complex and fast-changing environment.
With sharp market insights, scenario planning, resilient supply chains and local engagement, the mid-market is well placed to steer towards targeted, profitable and sustainable growth.
i. OECD lowers global outlook as Trump trade war hits US growth - Reuters
ii. Sustaining The Recovery - IMF
iii. Africa’s regional ambitions and global trade realities – Economist Impact
iv. Fed tests limits of 'wait and see' - Reuters
v. Risks to euro area financial stability from trade tensions – European Central Bank
vi. Global trade in 2025: Resilience under pressure – UN Trade and Development
